HARRISBURG (Sept. 7) – Democratic gubernatorial nominee Dan Onorato’s Harrisburg press conference last week shows why he is still behind Attorney General Tom Corbett: he hasn’t shown enough difference between himself and Corbett to gin up support or admirers.
He came to the Capitol last Wednesday to blast Corbett, his Republican rival, for not being specific or realistic about his campaign pledges. But instead he faced a half-hour of questions about his own plans, and was only marginally more specific or realistic than Corbett has been.
Neither candidate will say what they will cut facing a $4 billion looming budget shortfall. Onorato has ruled out most tax hikes in his first budget, except for a natural gas tax hike, and is counting on that tax more than what it will likely provide.
In other words, Onorato says Corbett is unrealistic and wrong to not say what he will cut and that he will not raise taxes, facing billions in looming deficits. But the only way in which Onorato is being more specific is a single proposed tax hike that, at best, will solve 2.5 percent of the state's fiscal problem.
And Onorato won’t say what his target revenue is for that tax hike, but clearly is expecting it to produce twice what anyone else is.
Even worse, from the point of view of drawing contrasts with Corbett on budget realism, Onorato says he will propose that tax hike go solely to pay to remediate the local impact of drilling, the environmental impact of drilling, environmental budget cuts and a Growing Greener III Fund. So none of that helps with the budget, really. And he says that if the tax, as the governor and both majority caucuses have promised, is passed this fall, he will re-open that law to take those subsidies from the general fund.
He has as much chance of accomplishing that as he does of flying around the state by flapping his arms.
Also, while priding himself on his specificity for proposing a tax hike Corbett has not, on natural gas extraction, Onorato will not reveal:
· The rate of that tax;
· If the rate will have any discounts as other states he earlier cited as examples of “competitive tax rates” have;
· Or what else he would put in that law.
And of course, by the time he gets in, that tax will very likely be finished.
So, yes, Onorato has been more specific than Corbett.
But if they were both traveling from Philly to Pittsburgh, and each got a ten-mile trip for every specific campaign promise, Corbett would still be at the Delaware River, and Onorato would be maybe a mile west of the city limits.
Why does this matter? Because the way to beat a risk-avoidant, gaffe-prone Corbett is not to play just about as safe as he is.
That is why Corbett’s gaffes and his so-far inability to click with regular voters has not hurt him at this point in the campaign. Because Onorato has done only part of the two-pronged job when your opponent gives you an opportunity: he has maximized attention on Corbett’s comments, but even power brokers have no more than a fuzzy picture of Onorato. He is neither defined in their minds nor exciting them.
After the primary, Onorato was well behind Corbett in the polls. Despite a summer when Corbett has been a gaffe machine and his campaign has to keep explaining he did not mean what he said, the polls still show Onorato behind.
And while Onorato keeps saying he has spent the summer catching up to Corbett in fund-raising, he hasn’t. How do I know? Because Onorato has let Corbett have a week of TV unanswered. That means Onorato didn’t have the money to match Corbett’s ads from the first day Corbett aired them.
And because Onorato’s past campaigns show he never cares to be the second guy on the air.
So right now we have a Republican and a Democrat both running “Trust Me, I’ll Tell You Later” campaigns for governor.
Onorato won’t be effective telling folks Corbett is saying nothing until he says something himself.
